The talking heads on TV are blathering about how retail sales over the weekend were up higher than expected and don't seem to understand why that number is a false tell. It's simple, really. Yes, people bought more than expected last week. But they were buying the stuff that was on sale, and folks, the discounts that were offered were amazing. Beyond that, and this is probably the most important point, many many people I talked to on Friday morning were doing all their shopping this weekend. Period. Done. Those who weren't going to be finished on Friday were going to wait for more sales. Not a good sign.
Look for all the glimmers of hope you can in the retail reports, folks, but just because it's shiny doesn't mean it's gold.