I'm not a fan of excuses. I screw up, I own it. You screw up, you own it. Retailers seem to constantly play the weather card - it was too cold, too warm, too dry, too wet, too snowy, etc. And that frankly pisses me off. But this weekend, I kind of have to give them the benefit of the doubt, at least those with a concentration of stores on the East Coast.
I had the opportunity to chat with NBC Nightly News today about this weekend's fun, although only about 3.5 of the best seconds from my 15 minutes of tape made it to air. (Not complaining, that's just how TV works. I just find it ironic.) Anyway, a couple of take aways:
* Yes, Christmas will still come on Friday. And yes, kids will still expect to have presents under the tree on Christmas morning, regardless of the weather. Santa, after all, has Rudolph and shouldn't be hindered by inclement weather.
* I don't care how much people shop this week, they'll be under more pressure because they have less time. And given that, expect fewer impulse buys, fewer instances of self-gifting. Put another way, sales might be okay, but not as good as they might have been had the weather been better.
* Companies with smaller presence on the east coast will have done better (all things being equal)than those based heavier in the south or west. That being said, the southern most portion of the country (ala Florida... JT Smith territory) wasn't as affected.
* If you're holding out for 70% discounts... you're either going to end up empty handed or with lime green jumpsuits in size 2. Face the facts, reailers have generally speaking managed their inventories very well this season. Panic was last year. Stupid merchandising, however, is omnipresent if you look hard enough. You can buy it though, I don't want it.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
Pardon me if this is obvious...
Those of you who already got this, tune back in tomorrow. For the rest of you:
It was announced today that both Wells Fargo and Citicorp were going to pay back TARP, joining Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Think that it's great that these banks are so healthy that they can pay back the money? Uh huh. If that's what you think it is, I've got some land in Florida for sale(right by JT Smith, who wanted to be mentioned in this post).
So now these banks don't have to listen to the government on pay. That's the real reason they've forked over the cash. It's not that I blame them, mind you. The government has no business setting pay for the private sector. Yeah, I understand that the banks got government bailout money, and for that they need to be accountable to the government. But 'the government' didn't (doesn't) have a clue about what people should be paid for ANY job, let alone top positions in banking. Remember, these are the folks who pay clerks 20% above the going rate in the private sector and yet make sure that folks in the military are still able to qualify for food stamps.
The big problem with all this is that if the banking sector were truly healthy, they'd be starting to loan on their own. And yet their fists are closed tight, hanging on to almost all the capital that wasn't needed to get the government to butt out. Obama's meeting today with bankers at the White House where he sternly scolded them about their 'responsibility' to the American public to lend since the public had bailed the banks out? BOGUS.
See, this is how it works if you're a bank: you loan your excess capital to the creditworthy and turn down those who don't qualify. That means that 1) you have to have excess capital, and 2) you have to find someone creditworthy to loan said capital. I don't care how cranky the government folks get, it's a bunch of blowhard posturing that messes with capitalism as we know it. And guess what - if you give people money who can't pay it back, you just create bigger problems... but hopefully not until after the next election.
Color me cynical.
It was announced today that both Wells Fargo and Citicorp were going to pay back TARP, joining Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Think that it's great that these banks are so healthy that they can pay back the money? Uh huh. If that's what you think it is, I've got some land in Florida for sale(right by JT Smith, who wanted to be mentioned in this post).
So now these banks don't have to listen to the government on pay. That's the real reason they've forked over the cash. It's not that I blame them, mind you. The government has no business setting pay for the private sector. Yeah, I understand that the banks got government bailout money, and for that they need to be accountable to the government. But 'the government' didn't (doesn't) have a clue about what people should be paid for ANY job, let alone top positions in banking. Remember, these are the folks who pay clerks 20% above the going rate in the private sector and yet make sure that folks in the military are still able to qualify for food stamps.
The big problem with all this is that if the banking sector were truly healthy, they'd be starting to loan on their own. And yet their fists are closed tight, hanging on to almost all the capital that wasn't needed to get the government to butt out. Obama's meeting today with bankers at the White House where he sternly scolded them about their 'responsibility' to the American public to lend since the public had bailed the banks out? BOGUS.
See, this is how it works if you're a bank: you loan your excess capital to the creditworthy and turn down those who don't qualify. That means that 1) you have to have excess capital, and 2) you have to find someone creditworthy to loan said capital. I don't care how cranky the government folks get, it's a bunch of blowhard posturing that messes with capitalism as we know it. And guess what - if you give people money who can't pay it back, you just create bigger problems... but hopefully not until after the next election.
Color me cynical.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
They're not all equal
I have two boys whom I love equally, but differently. They each have strengths and weaknesses. It would be wrong to treat them exactly the same since they aren't exactly the same.
Walking the mall today, it became so apparent that this holiday season is going to have it's share of winners AND losers, even though so many would like to paint all retail with the same brush.
There were a number of teen retailers full of merchandise that was marked down offering an additional savings of 25-33% with purchases of $75-100. It amused me that a couple of these retailers belong to a company that swore they weren't going to discount because it would damage the brand. I could report that these discounts drove scores of customers and purchases into their stores, but my parents taught me early that lying was the wrong thing to do. The mall I was at didn't have an Aeropostale, but I'm pretty sure that they had to be doing better business than what I saw at their competition.
On the other side of the equation, J Crew was running with a moderate amount of inventory at most, had some sales going which projected value, and all of it made me want to buy.
Certain large national department stores with more than 850 stores had a lot of merchandise, few clerks, and not a lot of purchasers among the folks wandering through the store. Those cash registers are more profitable if people line up to buy things at them.
Oh yeah, and if you're at the mall with your significant other and just can't take the hustle and bustle anymore... fear not. There's plenty of peace and quiet in just about any jewelry store in the mall.
There's a lot more detail rattling inside my head about this, but my bottom line is simple: don't believe all the hype that "The Consumer" is back. "The Consumer" doesn't exist, just like "The Retailer" doesn't. Unlike the Borg (yeah, I've been known to watch some sci-fi, so what?), there are differing levels of consumer rebounds and retailers' success isn't homogeneous. If you're not going to do your own homework, or pay to peek at someone else's... stay out of the game.
Be careful out there.
Walking the mall today, it became so apparent that this holiday season is going to have it's share of winners AND losers, even though so many would like to paint all retail with the same brush.
There were a number of teen retailers full of merchandise that was marked down offering an additional savings of 25-33% with purchases of $75-100. It amused me that a couple of these retailers belong to a company that swore they weren't going to discount because it would damage the brand. I could report that these discounts drove scores of customers and purchases into their stores, but my parents taught me early that lying was the wrong thing to do. The mall I was at didn't have an Aeropostale, but I'm pretty sure that they had to be doing better business than what I saw at their competition.
On the other side of the equation, J Crew was running with a moderate amount of inventory at most, had some sales going which projected value, and all of it made me want to buy.
Certain large national department stores with more than 850 stores had a lot of merchandise, few clerks, and not a lot of purchasers among the folks wandering through the store. Those cash registers are more profitable if people line up to buy things at them.
Oh yeah, and if you're at the mall with your significant other and just can't take the hustle and bustle anymore... fear not. There's plenty of peace and quiet in just about any jewelry store in the mall.
There's a lot more detail rattling inside my head about this, but my bottom line is simple: don't believe all the hype that "The Consumer" is back. "The Consumer" doesn't exist, just like "The Retailer" doesn't. Unlike the Borg (yeah, I've been known to watch some sci-fi, so what?), there are differing levels of consumer rebounds and retailers' success isn't homogeneous. If you're not going to do your own homework, or pay to peek at someone else's... stay out of the game.
Be careful out there.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
With apologies to Clement Clarke Moore
Twas the eve'n after Turkey Day and all through the mall,
There were creatures a-stirring, but not buying all.
The discounts were posted in the stores with care,
In hopes that the shoppers soon would be there.
The security teams were nestled all snug at their posts,
While visions of safety were bigger than most.
Shoppers in PJs, some with hot plates,
Had just settled in for a cold morning's wait.
When out in the parking lot there arose such a clatter,
Security sprang to attention to see what was the matter.
Away to stores I flew like a flash,
Held on to my credit cards, I'd only pay cash.
The fluorescent lights gleamed on the newly arrived stuff,
Gave a glimmer of hope to the retailers who'd had it so tough.
When what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a whole slew of shoppers, with Christmas lists for those dear.
They clutched at the flyers, all glossy and slick,
And I knew in an instant that it was bargains that would stick.
More rapid than hordes, the shoppers they came,
Crowding home and electronics, gotta get that new game.
Now toasters, now iPods, now board games and toys,
Grab discounts, grab bargains, can't afford to be coy.
To Kohls and to Target, To Walmart and the mall,
Shop away, shop away, shop away all.
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
Grew the lines at the checkouts with items to buy.
So up to the next floor, the hordes they plain flew,
They wanted those bargains, apparently more than did you.
And then in a twinkling, I heard from the clerks,
'Next in line please,' they were glad to have work.
As I talked with consumers, the people in line,
It was really apparent they weren't feeling too fine.
They were clutching their wallets, a glaze in their eyes,
'No credit left for me this year,' was often their cry.
Their choices were careful, each item a find,
Yet the retailers had obviously kept margins in mind.
Their steps they were quick, but eyes were quite bleery,
Still yawns they were stifled, due to caffeine with dairy.
Their bags didn't bulge, despite purchases paid,
A few less per family than they'd previously made.
Still some shopped for sport and had good fun,
Twas quite the excitement to watch where they'd run.
A quick look through stores when I should be in bed,
Soon gave me to know retailers might have a tough time ahead.
The customers they shopped where stuff was on sale,
But no discount equaled no purchase despite their avail.
And leaving the mall to hit the next store,
The consumers weren't confined to stores they adore.
The shoppers want value, not just cheap price.
And retailers win who know naughty from nice.
We're still not done with the shopping this season,
But retailers will win who use their good reason.
There were creatures a-stirring, but not buying all.
The discounts were posted in the stores with care,
In hopes that the shoppers soon would be there.
The security teams were nestled all snug at their posts,
While visions of safety were bigger than most.
Shoppers in PJs, some with hot plates,
Had just settled in for a cold morning's wait.
When out in the parking lot there arose such a clatter,
Security sprang to attention to see what was the matter.
Away to stores I flew like a flash,
Held on to my credit cards, I'd only pay cash.
The fluorescent lights gleamed on the newly arrived stuff,
Gave a glimmer of hope to the retailers who'd had it so tough.
When what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a whole slew of shoppers, with Christmas lists for those dear.
They clutched at the flyers, all glossy and slick,
And I knew in an instant that it was bargains that would stick.
More rapid than hordes, the shoppers they came,
Crowding home and electronics, gotta get that new game.
Now toasters, now iPods, now board games and toys,
Grab discounts, grab bargains, can't afford to be coy.
To Kohls and to Target, To Walmart and the mall,
Shop away, shop away, shop away all.
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
Grew the lines at the checkouts with items to buy.
So up to the next floor, the hordes they plain flew,
They wanted those bargains, apparently more than did you.
And then in a twinkling, I heard from the clerks,
'Next in line please,' they were glad to have work.
As I talked with consumers, the people in line,
It was really apparent they weren't feeling too fine.
They were clutching their wallets, a glaze in their eyes,
'No credit left for me this year,' was often their cry.
Their choices were careful, each item a find,
Yet the retailers had obviously kept margins in mind.
Their steps they were quick, but eyes were quite bleery,
Still yawns they were stifled, due to caffeine with dairy.
Their bags didn't bulge, despite purchases paid,
A few less per family than they'd previously made.
Still some shopped for sport and had good fun,
Twas quite the excitement to watch where they'd run.
A quick look through stores when I should be in bed,
Soon gave me to know retailers might have a tough time ahead.
The customers they shopped where stuff was on sale,
But no discount equaled no purchase despite their avail.
And leaving the mall to hit the next store,
The consumers weren't confined to stores they adore.
The shoppers want value, not just cheap price.
And retailers win who know naughty from nice.
We're still not done with the shopping this season,
But retailers will win who use their good reason.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
NBC Nightly News
Did a little work for my friend Brian Williams on Black Friday. Okay, I don't know Brian, but I'm sure we'd be friends if I did. Anyway, watch the results of 4 hours with a camera crew starting at 3:15am:
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Sandbagging or realism?
Interesting debate going on today after more retailers reported earnings. Several folks insinuated that management teams are sandbagging earnings expectations for Q4 so they can knock it out of the park. Let's be clear...no sane retail management team is going to be pumping up expectations when headline unemployment is 10.2% and the more realistic U-6 number that includes discouraged workers and the under employed is 17.5%. If people can't get jobs, they can't spend.
Yes, last year things were so dire, folks were so scared, that the sales were totally abysmal. It almost seemed Apocalyptic. And we have absolutely come back from that brink. But this time last year unemployment was only 6.8%, most folks had credit cards that hadn't had limits reduced, retailers had way too much inventory that they sold to us at 60% off, and we were still in the mindset that retail therapy worked.
But this year, we don't have the same level of inventories so there won't be the same sales. Oh sure, expect retailers to have promotions. Just don't expect that there will be the smell of fear when you walk in the stores. Retailers know you expect a discount, and they've procured items at costs that will allow them to put them "On Sale" while they still make decent margins. And if you buy it when it isn't "On Sale", they'll make even more.
The major retailers are saying November is starting weak. Smaller retailers are saying November is starting weak. JC Penney, Kohl's and Walmart have all started Black Friday discounting earlly. If I was managing a retailer, I wouldn't be enthusiastic about what's happening out there.
Caveat - one semi bright spot came from the CEO of American Express this morning when he said on CNBC that his cardholders spent 3% more in October. Maybe it will continue to holiday... maybe it won't. Most major outlets are expecting a fall in sales.
The trick right now is to find the best operators in retail and cling to them if you feel you must own a retailer. Discounters will do better than mainline departmetn stores. Higher end stores seem to be stronger than mainline too. Whatever you do, don't be tempted to lower your standards.
Bottom line: If you want to own these stocks do your research. Watch monthly retail sales. Walk the stores and watch trends. Talk to people about what they're doing for the holidays this year. Or just keep following me here, on CNBC and on Twitter and see what I'm seeing. Be careful out there.
Yes, last year things were so dire, folks were so scared, that the sales were totally abysmal. It almost seemed Apocalyptic. And we have absolutely come back from that brink. But this time last year unemployment was only 6.8%, most folks had credit cards that hadn't had limits reduced, retailers had way too much inventory that they sold to us at 60% off, and we were still in the mindset that retail therapy worked.
But this year, we don't have the same level of inventories so there won't be the same sales. Oh sure, expect retailers to have promotions. Just don't expect that there will be the smell of fear when you walk in the stores. Retailers know you expect a discount, and they've procured items at costs that will allow them to put them "On Sale" while they still make decent margins. And if you buy it when it isn't "On Sale", they'll make even more.
The major retailers are saying November is starting weak. Smaller retailers are saying November is starting weak. JC Penney, Kohl's and Walmart have all started Black Friday discounting earlly. If I was managing a retailer, I wouldn't be enthusiastic about what's happening out there.
Caveat - one semi bright spot came from the CEO of American Express this morning when he said on CNBC that his cardholders spent 3% more in October. Maybe it will continue to holiday... maybe it won't. Most major outlets are expecting a fall in sales.
The trick right now is to find the best operators in retail and cling to them if you feel you must own a retailer. Discounters will do better than mainline departmetn stores. Higher end stores seem to be stronger than mainline too. Whatever you do, don't be tempted to lower your standards.
Bottom line: If you want to own these stocks do your research. Watch monthly retail sales. Walk the stores and watch trends. Talk to people about what they're doing for the holidays this year. Or just keep following me here, on CNBC and on Twitter and see what I'm seeing. Be careful out there.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
What is a successful career anyway?
Some interesting moves today after the close... moves that made me think about the difference between being famous or infamous.
First, Ken Lewis announced his retirement from Bank of America as of the end of this year. The stock immediately rose in after hours trading, even though Cuomo says he's still coming after BoA. How humilitating it must be to know that investors think your company will be better off without you. Ken Lewis had a huge part in building up the financial supermarket concept... and yet all he'll be remembered for is his flame out at the end.
At least that's better than John Thain's fate - he'll always be the guy with a penchant for decorating... and an exquisite commode. Oh yeah, and didn't he do something in the investment business too?
Michael Vick, on the other hand, was given yet another shot at redemption today. Nike has decided to take what I hope is an educated gamble on Vick... again. This could either be very very good for them... or end in a greater-than-Thainsian blaze of glory.
At least this business is never boring.
First, Ken Lewis announced his retirement from Bank of America as of the end of this year. The stock immediately rose in after hours trading, even though Cuomo says he's still coming after BoA. How humilitating it must be to know that investors think your company will be better off without you. Ken Lewis had a huge part in building up the financial supermarket concept... and yet all he'll be remembered for is his flame out at the end.
At least that's better than John Thain's fate - he'll always be the guy with a penchant for decorating... and an exquisite commode. Oh yeah, and didn't he do something in the investment business too?
Michael Vick, on the other hand, was given yet another shot at redemption today. Nike has decided to take what I hope is an educated gamble on Vick... again. This could either be very very good for them... or end in a greater-than-Thainsian blaze of glory.
At least this business is never boring.
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