They're not all equal

I have two boys whom I love equally, but differently. They each have strengths and weaknesses. It would be wrong to treat them exactly the same since they aren't exactly the same.

Walking the mall today, it became so apparent that this holiday season is going to have it's share of winners AND losers, even though so many would like to paint all retail with the same brush.

There were a number of teen retailers full of merchandise that was marked down offering an additional savings of 25-33% with purchases of $75-100. It amused me that a couple of these retailers belong to a company that swore they weren't going to discount because it would damage the brand. I could report that these discounts drove scores of customers and purchases into their stores, but my parents taught me early that lying was the wrong thing to do. The mall I was at didn't have an Aeropostale, but I'm pretty sure that they had to be doing better business than what I saw at their competition.

On the other side of the equation, J Crew was running with a moderate amount of inventory at most, had some sales going which projected value, and all of it made me want to buy.

Certain large national department stores with more than 850 stores had a lot of merchandise, few clerks, and not a lot of purchasers among the folks wandering through the store. Those cash registers are more profitable if people line up to buy things at them.

Oh yeah, and if you're at the mall with your significant other and just can't take the hustle and bustle anymore... fear not. There's plenty of peace and quiet in just about any jewelry store in the mall.

There's a lot more detail rattling inside my head about this, but my bottom line is simple: don't believe all the hype that "The Consumer" is back. "The Consumer" doesn't exist, just like "The Retailer" doesn't. Unlike the Borg (yeah, I've been known to watch some sci-fi, so what?), there are differing levels of consumer rebounds and retailers' success isn't homogeneous. If you're not going to do your own homework, or pay to peek at someone else's... stay out of the game.

Be careful out there.

And here I am again... more about the consumer

So, I can't figure out how to imbed this video, but here's a link to my Bloomberg TV interview on Thursday.

A steeplechase for Shetland ponies

When I woke up before the crack of dawn this morning to review April's retail sales, I was expecting that things would be better than expected. I didn't get it posted to the blog, but if you're following me on Twitter (see the side bar to the right) you saw my notes from last weekend's mall walk. For the first time in months, malls were busy last weekend. People were parting with cash. Not large amounts of cash. But parking lots were fuller and more bags were being carried in greater quantity than I'd seen in my last 2 months of mall walks. Call it a smallish bounce off the bottom, but whatever you do, don't call it a return to a need for Spendaholics Anonymous.

My view is born out in this morning's comparable store sales numbers. Wal-Mart, bastion of the 'Save Money, Live Better' crowd beat expectations handily. Aeropostale, the poor man's value-conscious shopper's Abercrombie & Fitch, hit it out of the park with a 20% comp gain on the back of a 25% gain this time last year. Amazing. Oh, and the real Abercrombie? Down -22%. Price/value matters, folks. The shopper is spending, but they're being careful about how much and where.

Case in point on that value thingy? Sak's same store sales down over 31%. Nordstrom was 'only' down 10.8%, better than expected and more in line with Macy's (down 9.1%) because JWN has added more offerings at lower price points. Ross, TJX - both up nicely. Kohl's & JCP? Sales down, but not as much as expected... Q1 guidance raised. Thing is, you can only manage inventory and costs so much, eventually you have to have sales or make more drastic adjustments that will cause hate and discontent amongst the shoppers and perhaps shareholders.

The big questions now surround guidance for the second quarter and beyond as well as healthy scrutiny of Wall Street analyst's earnings estimates. The latter worries me more than the former. I've never known a group of folks more likely to take two data points and draw a straight line than the lemmings of Wall Street. It should be intersting to see how many different ways folks can justify owning these stocks at these valuations in this economic environment.

But if the retailers and analysts set the bar low enough, it will be just like a steeplechase for Shetland ponies - such an easy hurdle that almost anyone can get over it. I suppose in that environment you should consider shorting those that still trip themselves up.

By the way, if you're interested in hearing this morning's Bloomberg interview, click here.

No traffic jams here

I spent a number of hours walking a mall and a lifestyle center last Friday and Saturday. What I saw was certainly at odds with what the oh-so-cheerful talking heads are nattering about these days.

Sure, consumer confidence was better than expected yesterday. But it's still more than 5 points below where it most recently peaked in September 08. And I'm not seeing many signs of that confidence in the malls.

Friday I walked the region's best mall with a reporter friend. Between the already empty store fronts, some of which had been vacant for months, and the stores in the process of closing there are roughly 12 vacancies in a mall that has roughly 160 stores. Historically this mall has immediately put up "Coming Soon" signs as soon as a tenant has left. Not so much these days. In fact, the new highly touted Hugo Boss store is going into a store front that has been vacant save for seasonal holiday shops for at least a year.

Some of the stores that were closing had the big bold signs in the windows advertising the fabulous discounts - put Ritz Cameras and Babystyle in this category. Babystyle, by the way, is the last of the maternity stores in the mall as Motherhood vacated awhile ago. Illuminations was trying to play it cool, advertising 50 - 70% off but not announcing their departure (they're part of Yankee Candle and all the Illumnations stores are closing.)

Another thing I noticed was that the only folks that we saw carrying larger bags seemed to have come from stores with major sales going. Gymboree was clearing out old merchandise at 60% off, and the mommy brigade was definitely buying, albeit not as rabidly as we might have seen a year ago. Most of the other bags we saw were small... and lonely. Many shoppers had one little bag, perhaps holding something the size of a headband or scarf, but certainly not anything approaching a whole outfit. JC Penney continues to have their fans - more than the other department stores it seems. There were certainly a number (although not a large number) of medium sized JCP bags being toted about.

In the misses category, the stronger merchandise was earning sales, but where colors or styles were off, sales were missing. Chico’s seems to be doing okay – I’d put this season’s fashion in the ‘okay’ category. J Jill’s current offerings were beautiful, and shoppers seemed to be responding even though the merchandise was clearly meant for warmer weather than we’re currently experiencing up here. Coldwater Creek… ::sigh:: Let’s just call the current offering a miss in my eyes and move on.

Biggest shock of the trip? Abercrombie, which has sworn that they don’t want to be promotional, is apparently eating their own words. Normally the far back corner room of the store is sale merchandise and everything else is full price. Over the last 6-9 months I’d noticed that clearance merchandise had crept out into the back quarter of the store, almost doubling the floor space devoted to it. I almost had to pick my jaw off the ground on Friday, however, when literally 75% of the total floor space was marked down. April sales reported next week should be interesting.

I know there are a lot of folks who have been playing the retail space on the rebound off desperately low levels. And with Macy’s 146% rebound off the November 19th bottom, that’s been a good trading call. This happiness and joy with retail may even last through the next few weeks of earnings season since a lot of the expectations have been set really low. But I think you really need to ask yourself at this point if the consumer is really any healthier than they were 6 months ago … and if these stocks are worth the kind of mutltiples we’re looking at today. Macy’s at 24x forward earnings? Nordstrom at almost 19x forward earnings? Aeropostale, one of the amazing poster children of this recession who has been kicking tush and taking names in the teen space, is up 162% off the bottom and trading at 14x forward earnings.

All I’m saying is an exit strategy isn’t a bad thing to have in your hip pocket.

Socks and underwear

For many consumers, this is probably going to be The Holiday of Socks and Underwear. For most retailers, that’s going to translate to sackcloth and ashes for earnings.

The consumer is facing rising unemployment, higher food prices, tightening credit, and the evaporation of their balance sheets. Consumers are buying food and basics, all other categories have fallen off the proverbial cliff. They’re trading down wherever and whenever possible, and buying on sale when they don’t trade down. The one unknown is how the recent fall in gas prices will adjust consumer spending (down 45% off the July highs, roughly -15% from this time last year), but my best guess is that other concerns will trump it.

In order to entice shoppers into their stores, the bargains have already started. This is partly because many retailers still have fall merchandise to clear so they can get holiday into the stores, and partly because shoppers have proven to not make a move toward their wallets until the signs say 40% off or more. (JC Penney Tuesday through Thursday: 75% clearance merchandise, 15% off everything else in the store. Why would anyone think retailers are desperate?) Bankruptcy clearance sales are putting even more pressure on the ‘healthy’ (or would it be more appropriate to say ‘not yet in horrible trouble’) retailers, as they have to compete with the clearance pricing.

The one safe haven has been discount stores, but even within that group there are the haves and the have nots. Wal-Mart is the poster child for this recession: the one retailer who after three long years of promises and pain had finally gotten its house in order, and at exactly the right time. Wal-Mart’s mix of food and general merchandise (roughly 60/40 consumables/gm) has served it well. Costco and BJ’s Wholesale also sell a mix of products leveraged to consumables, and their performance reflects that. That contrasts with Target that doesn’t sell nearly as much food (41% of what they sell is apparel/home). Dollar stores are also doing well, as is as Aeropostale a teen retailer that specializes in lower priced merchandise that is still similar to the higher priced Abercrombie and American Eagle.

Macy’s and Best Buy reported this morning. Macy’s is managing through this time by not marking down, controlling inventories, and putting out a feel good message (LOVE LOVE LOVE the ‘Believe’ campaign they’re running) as opposed to some of their competitors (JCP noted above) that are really marketing on price. Best Buy told us this is the worst they’ve seen it. Of course, they’re not selling anything that is absolutely vital to the consumers’ survival (despite what kids might say about having to have the newest computer games.)

Surveys are showing that a majority of shoppers are planning on spending less this holiday season than last year. Those purchases that are made are going to focus on value for the money. That doesn’t bode well for gift cards this year, since a savvy shopper can shop the sales, buy a $100 sweater for $60 (or less) and get the mental credit with the gift receiver for having bought a $100 sweater. On the other hand, if you give a gift card $50, chances are you have to pay $50 for it. Although, there are a number of signs of desperation from the retailers that include ‘buy $100 in toys and get a $10 gift card (Fred Meyer… a Kroger affiliate much like a small WMT) and Mattel’s current offer of ‘buy $100 in Barbie paraphernalia (any retailer) and get a $50 Barbie Visa gift card for mom.’

Specifically on stocks reporting Thursday:
* I’m expecting that WMT could beat consensus of $0.76, although since we’re talking about WMT, it should only be by a penny or two.
* Kohl’s has already guided down to the lower end of $0.51-0.56. They’re going head to head with the rest of the department store space, and it’s a very value conscious consumer. They’re a fabulous competitor and have been able to manage costs extremely well historically which is going to be necessary for success going forward.
* Nordstrom. ::sigh:: Nordstrom is going to be painful. All we know is that numbers will be below previous guidance for $0.32-0.37 (consensus was $0.36, now $0.31, and I fear still too high.) Love management, think they’ve got great systems and cost advantages (commissioned based sales staff), but I am concerned that they’re not only missing the aspirational customers but that now their core customers have pulled way back.

Be careful out there.

Limbo!

All I can think about after this morning's retail same store sales release is doing the limbo... you know, the dance where the refrain is 'how low can you go?'

The numbers are miserable. Of all the companies I track, only two had positive comp store sales (comps): Wal-Mart (+2.4%) and Aeropostale (+1%)... and Aeorpostale's comp was below the expectation for +4%. The department stores had it rough, and the higher end stores were hit especially hard. Nordstrom managed to 'beat' expectations for a -12.5% comp by reporting -15.5%. Saks not only had a -16.6% comp, but said that even their (previously?) well-heeled shoppers weren't buying much if it wasn't on sale. That's saying something for a store that targets customers with an income in the top 5% demographic!

Reports today were filled with companies guiding down expectations prior to the release of Q3 earnings, which start next week. Two thoughts on this: first, if you didn't already realize that things have just been getting worse for the consumer you haven't been paying attention; and second, where the HECK have the Wall Street analysts been? I have to say, many times when I've met with those guys and company managements, I've been amazed at how much more I know about the companies and how they're executing in the stores than the headline analyst did. Scary. Get out and get into the malls, boys. It's eye opening! ::rant over::

Anyway, on the 'opps, we did it again... our earnings aren't going to make previously lowered expectations' list are:

• Nordstrom
• Macy's
• Kohl's
• JC Penney (within range if you include a real estate sale is NOT okay)
• American Eagle
• Pacific Sunwear
• Zumiez

Interestingly, the list of companies affirming guidance or raising guidance is as long, just from different sectors:

• BJ's Wholesale (gas helped a lot)
• Ross Stores
• TJX Companies
• Aeropostale (the only specialty retailer really performing)
• Hot Topic
• The Gap (low sales are okay if you can still make margins)

So what will be come of America's retailers? It's going to be ugly folks. To paraphrase, these are the times that try retailer's souls. My prediction is that within a few years we will have a major contraction in specialty retail. Folks like Abercrombie & Fitch will give up on some of their brand extentions like RUEHL that just aren't working. American Eagle will shutter Martin + Osa. Gap will have to shutter a lot of its retail space. Limited, it's been nice, but can you really make it? Chico's? Coldwater Creek? You're no longer growth businesses, and I'm not sure there's room enough for both of you in this new landscape.

The American consumer has rediscovered frugality, and this time it isn't a phase, it HAS to be religion. I'm just not sure there's a reason to own much beyond the discount stores until more of the pain has passed.