The most important things around the tree

I know I spend a lot of time focusing on the consumer, what they're buying, how the capitalist in me wishes they were buying more, and the somewhat dire circumstances I'm expecting based on that lack of consumption.

But at the end of the day, it's not about the things you have, it's about the people you have. It's about the family, the friends, the memories you create, and the times you enjoy.

Take some time, enjoy your family, and remember that there's a reason for this season - and it isn't Santa Claus.

Merry Christmas to you and yours from me and mine.

Let's blame the weather

I almost feel sorry for the retailers at this point. In an already exquisitely horrid environment, they can't seem to catch a break. Business has been bad. Discounts have been huge. Margins have been microscopic. And now Mother Nature is dealing what will surely be a death blow for at least a few firms: seemingly 3/4 of the United States is blanketed in snow and miserable shopping weather.

I usually laugh at weather as an excuse from retailers, but this time, I've got to commmiserate with them. I mean, even Las Vegas kids got a snow day this week! This week, this weekend in particular, is usually the biggest shopping weekend of the holiday season. And now what shoppers there are can't get to the stores.

I feel like I should bake some hot dishes for the retail wakes that are surely coming.

The Retail Wave

If you've been reading long, you know that I'm convinced that there are more retail bankruptcies coming... soon. Here's an article from the Cape Cod Times that quotes me extensively on this phenomenon.

Marketplace Radio

I had the opportunity to chat a bit with Jeremy Hobson of Marketplace Radio today about the amazing discounts that are in retail today... and the even greater discounts that are coming. You can listen to it here.

What if they sold a holiday and nobody bought?

It finally happened. They've discounted Christmas to the point where the retailers are praying for breakeven and consumers still aren't buying with both hands. Of course, part of the problem is that one hand is busy just keeping the shirts on their backs.

I'll be out in the malls this weekend again, checking the discounts. One of the concerns that I'm hearing is a dirth of gift card sales. I'm sure part of the reason for this is that you have to pay full price for gift cards... when you can get full 'gift credit' with your friends and family for a sweater bought at 70% off.

The rise of gift cards has helped to extened the holiday shopping season through January as folks redeem them for heavily discounted or new season merchandise. The worry now being floated is that a drop in gift card purchases will cause the holiday shopping season to end December 24th at 7pm. The stuff left after the last elf packs up Santa's bag on Christmas Eve will sell... but I have a feeling I'll see pricing on December 26th like I've never seen before.

Money saving tip of the day? Have your holiday gathering with extended family on December 27th... and do your shopping the day after Christmas.

What I'm thinking today... video edition

Sometimes re-typing what you've already said just doesn't make any sense. In that spirit, I present to you my recent appearance on Bloomberg TV:

Try to keep up, please

Times, they are a changin'. It was just about 6 months ago that I sat down with Costco management and heard things that gave me chills. Part of it, I'm sure, was the fact that it was the day before they preannounced a Q4 (August fiscal year end) earnings shortfall, so they were glum anyway (although we didn't know about that until 12 hours later).

Back in July the discussion was all about inflation: food inflation, gas inflation. Remember that it was mid-July that gas prices peaked nationwide. Gas prices are now down 58% from that level. Fifty. Eight. Percent. Today on their first quarter conference call Costco confirmed that they are now also getting price concessions from suppliers on goods that had gone up significantly just a few months ago. While I want to be clear that they didn't specify where they are currently getting concessions, some of the major price increases had been for goods that used petroleum products (plastics, etc). You can bet those prices are headed down. In fact, it was a source of great pain for them that they had to take the price on their rotesserie chickens up from $4.99 to $5.49 to $5.99 all within the course of 6 weeks because of food price inflation. Guess what? They're back down again.

Gas, which was a source of huge LIFO charges because of inflation (if you want an explanation of how and why that accounting even exists, you'll need to find someone smarter to explain it), has now swung completely the other way. And whereas it was at best a teeny profit margin (perhaps even sometimes a bit of an unintentional loss leader) in July and August, it was for a bit of time these last few months 'wildly profitable' according to Costco. (Because they sell so much gas, they buy gas cheaper faster as the price is dropping, but can still stay at really cheap prices to consumers while their cost drops faster.)

There's been a lot of consternation about the huge amount of economic stimulus the government has been pumping into the economy in the name of stabilization, mostly because the great fear of further inflation. Eventually that may happen. Heck, look at what happen when they took interest rates down and flooded cash into the market at the turn of the century (see my August 2008 Post Modern fairy tale for more information). But I'm here to tell you, we can't see the whites of inflation's eyes from this vantage point. We'll remain vigilant. But in a really quick turn of events, we're much more troubled by the looming deflation at this point.